“Tropical storm” status is unlikely to be achieved until the system passes over Florida, but severe conditions persist, warnings remain in effect.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) – The 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center shows the system – still unnamed – expected to hit South Florida throughout the day and in the evening.
UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 11 a.m. SATURDAY:
000 WTNT31 KNHC 041450 BULLETIN TCPAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 … DISRUPTION NOW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA… … FLOOD RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT… 1500 UTC…
INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…26.5N 81.4W APPROXIMATELY 35 MI…60 KM NE OF NAPLES FLORIDA APPROXIMATELY 100 MI…155 KM SW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH …65 KM/H CURRENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The tropical storm warning has been discontinued for the Florida Keys, the west coast of Florida west of the Card Sound Bridge, Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A tropical storm warning is in effect for… * Florida’s east coast south of the Volusia/Brevard county line to the Card Sound Bridge * Northwestern Florida Bahamas A tropical storm watch is in effect for… * Bermuda A Tropical Storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area. For storm information specific to your region in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your region outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your National Weather Service.
DISCUSSION AND PERSPECTIVES ———————-
As of 11:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 p.m. UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 26.5 north and longitude 81.4 west. The system is moving northeast at nearly 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. An east-northeast turn with a further increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by an easterly turn Monday evening. According to the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move into southern or central Florida today, over the southwest Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight and near or north of Bermuda on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is expected tonight through Monday as the system moves away from Florida over the Atlantic. West. * Chance of formation in 48 hours… high… 90%. * Chance of formation over 5 days… high… 90%. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km) east of the center. For the past few hours, a weather station at Fowey Rocks near Miami, Florida reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) at an altitude 144 feet (44 m). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1002 mb (29.59 in).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————-
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under the AWIPS MIATCDAT1 header, the WMO WTNT41 KNHC header, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages . RAINS: Heavy rains will continue to affect parts of South Florida and the Keys well into this morning, beginning to lessen this afternoon. Heavy rains will continue in the northwest Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are expected: South Florida: Storm totals 6-10 inches with isolated maximums of 15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected. Florida Keys: Total storm 4 to 8 inches with isolated highs of 10 inches. This rain can produce flash and urban flooding. Northwest Bahamas: Total storm 4 to 8 inches with highs of 12 inches. This rain can produce flash and urban flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida warning area today, especially in squalls, and in the northwest Bahamas this afternoon.
STORM: Storm surge could cause water levels to rise 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the far northwest Bahamas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary significantly over short distances. For information specific to your region, please consult the products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida peninsula and the Upper Keys in the early afternoon.
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